Conflux

N.C. Young

Scott Lawrence

Magnus Rahbek Hansen

As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market.

Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options.

Elon is single aella is single that’s all you need to make happen.

Bit of a fun experiment. Can the power of No's outweigh the Yes voters? What happens if at the last moment "yes voters" make a push and overshoot it?

This is Manifold's hoarde vs alliance, which side are you on?
Closes midnight at the end of the month.

This market resolves positively on the 1st of July, 2022. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8980/marcos-wins-2022-philippine-election/

Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world.

Tetraspace

May 4, 4:33pm: Resolves as the Democratic nominee for the 2022 Florida senate election.

This resolves "YES" if any of the NYTimes front pages from Dec 1-8 in 2022 has an article about COVID. The article has to be primarily COVID/pandemic related, or directly reference the pandemic in the headline or first paragraph. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper

Close date updated to 2022-11-01 11:59 pm

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